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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NEW
YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds remain possible this afternoon across parts
of New York.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook. With
storms continuing to increase in coverage and intensity over western
NY, atop marginal boundary-layer-based instability, an instance or
two of damaging gusts remain possible with one of the stronger
storms. Similarly, a severe gust cannot be ruled out with one of the
stronger storms over the Interior West given the presence of steep
tropospheric lapse rates. Please see the previous outlook (below)
for more details.

..Squitieri.. 09/09/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024/

...New York...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Northeast and eastern
Canada, an embedded shortwave trough over southern Ontario and the
upper Great Lakes will continue to move across the Northeast this
afternoon and evening. Ascent associated with this shortwave trough
and related mid-level jet is supporting isolated thunderstorms
across southern Ontario and vicinity. This activity will spread
east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of NY. The airmass
over this region should beco*e only weakly unstable as filtered
daytime heating occurs, with poor mid-level lapse rates, persistent
cloud cover, and modest low-level moisture limiting destabilization.
Still, gradually increasing west-northwesterly winds at low/mid
levels will foster around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. This should
support modest thunderstorm organization, with multicells/small
clusters potentially evolving along and downstream of Lake Ontario.
Isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat with
this convection as it moves across much of NY this afternoon and
early evening, before eventually weakening with eastward extent with
the loss of daytime heating.

...Northern/Central Rockies and High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon over portions of the northern/central Rockies as a weak
shortwave trough continues eastward. Low-level moisture and related
instability are both expected to remain rather meager into the High
Plains, which should limit updraft intensities. Still, isolated
strong/gusty winds may occur with this high-based activity across
parts of MT/WY where low-level lapse rates can beco*e steepened.
Greater low-level moisture is present farther east into the Dakotas,
along/east of a weak surface low/trough. But, increasing
low/mid-level temperatures and a strong cap should generally inhibit
thunderstorm development through much of the day with eastward
extent across the northern/central Plains.