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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity
on Wednesday, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine.

...Synopsis...
Tropical Cyclone Francine is currently forecast to make landfall
sometime later Wednesday afternoon or evening near the LA Gulf
Coast, potentially as a hurricane. Meanwhile, a relatively deep
mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northwest into
the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. In response to the
this trough, some deepening of surface low pressure is expected from
the eastern Great Basin into Montana. 

...Central Gulf Coast vicinity...
See NHC forecasts and advisories for additional information
regarding Francine. Some tornado threat will spread inland as
Francine approaches the coast during the day before making landfall
by evening. Based on current forecasts/guidance, the most favorable
overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and inland intrusion of
tropical moisture (with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F) is
expected across parts of southern LA/MS, where a small Slight Risk
has been included. The northern extent of an appreciable tornado
threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy potentially
remaining quite limited into parts of central MS Wednesday night,
but the Marginal Risk has been expanded based on the expected track
of Francine into early Thursday morning. 

...Interior Northwest...
Large-scale ascent and cooling temperatures aloft attendant to the
approaching trough will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development across the interior Northwest on Wednesday. Wind
profiles will beco*e favorable for organized convection, but
moisture will likely remain rather limited, and uncertainty remains
regarding whether buoyancy will beco*e sufficient for a severe
threat. Locally gusty winds and small hail could acco*pany the
strongest storms. 

...Central/northern High Plains...
Isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of the
central/northern High Plains during the afternoon, to the south of a
stationary front that will extend eastward across parts of eastern
MT into the Dakotas. While this convection may remain rather
disorganized, inverted-v profiles could support localized strong
gusts. 

Near and immediately north of the front, somewhat more favorable
moisture and instability may be in place during the
afternoon/evening, but capping will tend to limit surface-based
development. A few stronger elevated storms will be possible, but
potential for any organized severe threat remains uncertain at this
time.

..Dean.. 09/09/2024