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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible today over parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward
into the northern Plains. Isolated storms may produce damaging wind
gusts over western and central New York State.

...Synopsis...
A large upper ridge will remain in place over the Central CONUS
flanked by broad trouging to the west and a lingering upper low over
eastern Canada. Behind the upper low, a secondary embedded shortwave
trough and speed max are forecast to move south out of western
Ontario and over the Great Lakes, providing adequate lift for
scattered thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast. To the west,
scattered thunderstorms are likely over the Great Basin into the
Four Corners, with a few thunderstorms possible over the Northern
Plains ahead of the western US trough. Finally, scattered
thunderstorms may also develop by afternoon peak heating along the
Gulf Coast into FL and near the outer bands of PTC6.

...Great Lakes vicinity...
As the aforementioned mid-level speed max approaches from southern
Canada, shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to increase in
coverage and intensity in the vicinity of Lakes Erie/Ontario, as
well as over portions of northwestern NY State by mid morning.
Limited, but adequate, surface moisture (dewpoints in the mid 50s to
near 60 F), co*bined with daytime heating, and 500 mb temps of -18
to -20C will support weak destabilization (MLCAPE 500-700 J/kg)
across parts of the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Low-topped
bands or clusters of predominately multicell storms are likely, and
may briefly organize owing to increasing flow aloft aiding
deep-layer shear to near 30 kt. Despite the weak buoyancy, fairly
steep low-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) beneath the upper low, may
support a few damaging gusts and instances of small hail with the
strongest storms through the afternoon. Convection should eventually
outrun the more robust buoyancy and weaken to the southeast into
parts of northern PA and southern New England this evening.

..Lyons.. 09/09/2024