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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...01z Update...
Evening water vapor imagery shows a prominent mid-level ridge
remains in place over much of the CONUS, with surface high pressure
favoring dry and quiescent weather over much of the country. To the
east of the ridge, an upper low over the Northeast and eastern
Canada is slowly filling. A cold front trailing south of the low has
moved mostly offshore, but was supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the northern Gulf of Mexico and across parts of FL.
Continued offshore flow ahead of the surface high moving slowly
south and east should keep much of this activity offshore or
confined to the immediate coast through the next 12 hours. Storms
should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity through the
remainder of the evening.

To the west, weak and broader troughing is ongoing over the West
Coast with an embedded shortwave perturbation crossing the northern
Rockies. Monsoon moisture advection ahead of theses features is
supporting scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermoutnain
West, into the northern Rockies and across much of the Desert
Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms appear likely to
persist into this evening as the weak trough shifts slowly eastward,
especially across parts of ID and the Great Basin where more
clustering has occurred. Storms are predominately high-based in
nature, owing to steep low-level lapse rates, hot temperatures and
the limited monsoon moisture. This could support an occasional dry
downburst with the more robust cores, mainly over parts of southern
CA. However, limited deep-layer shear and weak overall buoyancy
suggests these storms are unlikely to be meaningfully organized or
persistent. Thus, will continue with severe probs less than 5%.
Storms should begin to decrease in coverage this evening with the
loss of diurnal heating and mid-level drying. Otherwise, the severe
risk appears limited across much of the country.

..Lyons.. 09/09/2024