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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

A broad upper ridge will remain across the middle portions of the
U.S. through the early parts of this week. Another strong upper
trough will begin to approach the Northwest. By midweek, the trough
will impact the Great Basin before lifting northeast into the
northern Plains by the weekend. Another amplified trough may impact
the western U.S. by next weekend, but confidence in the upper air
pattern this far in advance is still low.

...Great Basin...
Fire weather concerns will increase on Tuesday with the approach of
the strong trough. An initially weak surface pattern will lead to
less widespread winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher). Areas of
northwest and southern Nevada and nearby vicinity appear most likely
to observe several hours of elevated conditions. Greater fire
weather concerns will develop on Wednesday as the trough moves into
the western Basin by late afternoon. Widespread 15-25 mph winds
appear probable. With the mid-level jet nosing into northern Sierra
by late afternoon, some intense wind gusts could occur in the lee of
the terrain of northwest Nevada for at least a brief period. Another
corridor of strong wind is expected from southern Nevada into
western Utah just ahead of the front.

...Northern/Central Plains...
As the trough approaches, deepening surface cyclones on Wednesday
and Thursday will drive strong surface winds across parts of the
Plains. With preceding days of dry weather and the upper ridge
driving above average temperatures, fine fuels should continue to
dry and available ERC data suggest some areas will again approach
the 90th percentile. As winds shift to southerly, it will take time
to advect moisture northward. Furthermore, the tropical system in
the Gulf will likely slow moisture return as offshore flow develops
along its western flank. That said, the drier solutions have been
given more weight this forecast even though signals for critical
fire weather are weaker in the ECMWF and available ensembles. The
strongest winds over the broadest area will likely occur on
Thursday. Some signal for convection in the surface trough on
Wednesday is noted, but amounts should remain isolated and minimal.

...c*lumbia Gorge...
There is potential for elevated to briefly critical fire weather to
occur on Tuesday. Increasing mid-level winds will co*bine with a
strong onshore pressure gradient to drive 15-20 mph winds through
the Gorge along with RH potentially near 15%. The duration of these
conditions may be brief enough that highlights will not be
warranted.

..Wendt.. 09/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...