Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next
week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week
before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns
will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next
week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on
trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness.

...Great Basin...
Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on
Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra.
The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit
uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern.
Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as
the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough
develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are
possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in
southern Nevada into western Utah.

...Northwest...
A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in
the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front
on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with
northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the
increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from
recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present
with the modest increase in westerly surface winds.

...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains...
As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts
northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these
regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The
typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather
conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble
guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long
near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are
not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow
cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added
potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast
into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture
return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will
continue to be monitored.

...Western/central Montana...
As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough
extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in
the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope
winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level
winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only
moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears
too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated
conditions are possible.

..Wendt.. 09/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...