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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great
Lakes region on Tuesday and into the Northeast on Wednesday. Another
shortwave ridge is forecast to move through the north-central U.S.
on Wednesday as an upper-level trough amplifies across the western
U.S. Due to the presence of instability in the northern Plains,
thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon. However,
large-scale ascent is expected to be limited and deep-layer shear
relatively weak, suggesting that storms should remain isolated and
unorganized. Additional storms will be possible near the Gulf Coast
each day.

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
The western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move through the
Rockies and into the north-central states from Friday into Saturday.
As the trough moves out, large-scale ascent is forecast to
overspread a moist and unstable airmass in the northern and central
Plains. Although some severe threat will be possible ahead of the
trough, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak. This
suggests that any severe threat that develops during the afternoon
and evening should remain isolated.