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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKE ERIE
ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO AND INTO SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon from
Lake Erie across much of Ohio and into southeast Indiana and
northern Kentucky.

...20Z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the outlook, as the previous forecast
remains on track. Along the front/wind shift in OH, a couple small,
loosely organized clusters (with transient supercell
characteristics) will be capable of producing strong to locally
damaging wind gusts through the afternoon, aided by diurnally
steepened low-level lapse rates. Isolated small to marginally severe
hail will also be possible with this activity. Farther southwest
into southeast IN, additional small clusters and weak/transient
left-movers are evolving behind the wind shift. Here, slightly
stronger deep-layer shear (per the latest IND VWP) could support
sporadic hail and isolated strong to severe gusts. Overall, the
severe threat still appears too marginal/localized for an upgrade.
For additional details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2049.

..Weinman.. 09/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024/

...Lower Great Lakes into the OH Valley...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through the Upper Midwest and into the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valley. This shortwave trough is expected to continue
eastward/southeastward through OH Valley during the day, progressing
through the base of the parent upper trough over Ontario. Recent
surface analysis places the low associated with this wave over
southwestern Ontario. A cold front extends southwestward from this
low across the middle/lower OH Valley and the Ozark Plateau before
continuing through central and southwest OK. 

Low-level airmass ahead of this front across much of the OH Valley
is characterized by mid 60s dewpoints. This low-level moisture is
forecast to advect northeastward into the Upper OH Valley in a
fairly narrow corridor ahead of the front throughout the day,
although boundary-layer mixing could drop dewpoints into the upper
50s by the afternoon. This low-level moisture will help support
modest buoyancy as the airmass diurnally warms, although the overall
buoyancy will be limited by both the boundary-layer mixing and
persistence of warm mid-level temperatures. There should still be
enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm development along the front
during the afternoon. 

The stronger mid-level flow, and resultant stronger vertical shear,
will lag behind the front, while also having a more front-parallel
structure. This orientation, coupled with the modest buoyancy and
weak pre-frontal convergence, could result in quick undercutting of
any updrafts, leading to a more anafrontal character to the storms.
Even so, isolated thunderstorms may remain in the warm sector long
enough to produce a few damaging gusts. Isolated hail is possible as
well, even as storms beco*e displaced behind the front. Activity
should weaken this evening as it moves eastward out of the most
favorable moisture, and into a nocturnally cooling/stabilizing
boundary layer.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
front from Mid-South vicinity across AR into northwest TX. Weak
buoyancy and shear should mitigate storm intensity, keeping the
severe potential low. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated from
the Gulf Coast into FL, amid the tropical airmass in place. A few
water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible,
particularly across the FL Peninsula.