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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northeast into
the Atlantic early in the week, as a shortwave ridge moves through
the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move
through the north-central U.S. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure is forecast to remain over the eastern third of the U.S.
This will likely impede moisture return over the southern U.S.
through midweek. While thunderstorms will be possible near the Gulf
Coast each day, deep-layer shear is forecast to be too weak for
severe storms. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop each
afternoon in parts of the north-central states, but limited
large-scale ascent and relatively weak deep-layer shear should be
unfavorable for organized storms.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Arklatex
on Thursday, as a shortwave trough moves through the south-central
U.S. Thunderstorm development, with some potentially severe, will be
possible within the moist airmass from the southern Plains eastward
into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. There is considerable
uncertainty concerning the timing of the shortwave trough and
instability. For this reason, the area with the greatest threat is
unclear at this time. On Friday, moisture advection is forecast to
continue across the central U.S. as the western U.S. upper-level
trough approaches the central and northern Plains. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in the
north-central states. Uncertainty on Friday is again substantial due
to the relatively wide dispersion among the model solutions.