Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across parts of the Northeast and
Mid Atlantic on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A deep trough is forecast to take on more of a neutral or negative
tilt on Saturday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves
slowly eastward across parts of ON/QC. A surface low initially near
the lower Great Lakes may gradually deepen as it moves
northeastward, while a trailing cold front will move through parts
of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic through the day and into the
evening. Farther south, a gradually deepening frontal wave is
forecast to move near the Carolina coast through the day, and then
move offshore by evening. To the west, an upper-level ridge is
forecast to remain in place across the Southwest, while an
upper-level trough moves slowly eastward across northern CA and the
Pacific Northwest. 

...Parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
Some modest low-level moisture return is possible along/ahead of the
front across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, though buoyancy will
likely remain meager due to weak midlevel lapse rates, and timing of
the front remains somewhat uncertain. If adequate destabilization
can occur along/ahead of the front, then increasing low/midlevel
flow and large-scale ascent would support potential for somewhat
organized convection during the day across parts of the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic, which could pose some damaging-wind potential.
Severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the
region, if confidence increases regarding frontal timing and
development of sufficient instability.  

...Central/southern High Plains vicinity...
Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints generally in the low 50s
F) beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support
moderate destabilization across parts of the central/southern High
Plains. Deep-layer shear will beco*e at least marginally supportive
of organized storms within a modest northwesterly flow regime. Storm
development and coverage (if any) across the High Plains remains
uncertain, with large-scale ascent likely to remain subtle at best. 

Diurnal storm development will also be possible across the higher
terrain of the southern/central Rockies, though buoyancy and
deep-layer shear will tend to be somewhat weaker co*pared to areas
farther east. 

...c*astal NC...
Depending on the track of the frontal wave that is forecast to
develop Friday night near the coastal Carolinas, rich low-level
moisture may spread slightly inland during the morning/afternoon,
before the low moves offshore. While some increase in low-level flow
is expected as the wave gradually deepens, buoyancy will likely
remain quite weak. Any severe potential with the system may be
rather limited, unless low-level mass response ends up being
stronger than currently forecast.

..Dean.. 09/05/2024