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Mesoscale Discussion 1547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...Far southern Lower MI...northeast IN...northwest OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220226Z - 220400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of strong to severe gusts will spread southward
from southern Lower MI into northeast IN and northwest OH this
evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS has developed over parts of
southern Lower MI and is tracking south-southeastward at around 15
kt. 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear oriented oblique to the
leading-edge gust front is supporting modest organization, while a
subtle 30 kt low-level jet (sampled by regional VWPs) is also aiding
in convective maintenance with southward extent. While increasing
nocturnal boundary-layer stability should eventually result in
convective inflow rooted above the surface, upper 60s/lower 70s
dewpoints immediately ahead of the ongoing convection could support
a localized risk of strong to severe gusts across northeast IN and
northwest OH given the already-established cold pool. The severe
threat will generally be maximized with any north/south-oriented
segments of convection. Considering the more east/west-orientation
of the gust front and increasing boundary-layer stability, a watch
is not expected.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41828633 41878547 42168475 41988430 41678405 41098426
            40828513 40878577 41418629 41828633