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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

High pressure will build in across the western US D3/Thursday
through D5/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend. As this
occurs, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward with
drying conditions extending into the desert Southwest through
D5/Friday. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest
in the west, though hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some
increase in fire behavior. 

A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning
late D4/Friday and D5/Saturday across northern California into the
Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and
precipitable water values steadily increase. For now, confidence is
highest in including 10% probabilities on D4/Friday across the
Sierra into western Nevada and south-central Oregon, where signal
for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs. 
Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the
Southwest by D6/Sunday-D8/Tuesday. 

The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D7/Monday-D8
/Tuesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern
California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This
will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly
on D8/Tuesday. For now, confidence remains too low to include areas
based on model agreement, fuels, and potential rainfall.

..Thornton.. 09/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...