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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms developing across the northern Rockies and
adjacent portions of the Great Basin this afternoon may yield an
isolated severe risk, before spreading eastward toward the northern
High Plains this evening.

...Northern Great Basin/Rockies into the Adjacent High Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows a smoke-encased mid to
upper-level low/vorticity maximum over central ID.  This upper
feature will move to near southwest MT/eastern ID late tonight.  The
satellite data late this morning shows agitated cumulus developing
immediately ahead of the vorticity max near the ID/MT border, and as
large-scale ascent spreads east, additional thunderstorms (widely
scattered to scattered coverage) should develop over the higher
terrain through early afternoon in tandem with daytime heating.

Forecast soundings across southwest MT into northwest WY show
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE with some elongation of the hodograph.  A few
of the stronger storms will probably acquire transient supercell
characteristics and have an associated hail/wind threat.  Some
clustering may eventually evolve by early evening as storms move
into south-central MT and adjacent parts of northern WY.  

Somewhat more limited low-level moisture should be present this
afternoon farther south into WY and northern UT. Even so, diurnal
heating will aid in a deeply mixed boundary layer by this afternoon,
and steep mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain over
this region. The net result will be high-based thunderstorms capable
of producing isolated severe gusts initially developing across
northern UT into far eastern ID, and subsequently moving
east-northeastward over WY through the evening.

..Smith/Flournoy/Squitieri.. 09/03/2024