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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
THE MIDWEST....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of
Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A broad, positively tilted trough with several embedded shortwave
troughs will beco*e more consolidated and start to amplify across
the northern Plains on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the
surface, a cold front will move southeast across the northern Plains
with scattered thunderstorms possible. The greater thunderstorm
coverage is expected during the afternoon/evening across the central
Rockies, beneath the coldest air aloft, and across northwest
Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota early Thursday morning as the low-level
jet intensifies along the frontal zone. 

...Central Rockies into the central High Plains...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across the
central Rockies on Wednesday afternoon as cold air aloft (-12C at
500mb) co*bines with significant heating over the higher terrain.
The greatest instability will be near the center of the vorticity
maximum/cold air pocket where wind shear will be quite weak. Some
wind gusts or isolated large hail will be possible, but a more
organized threat seems unlikely. A more favorable wind profile will
exist along the southern periphery of this trough from eastern Utah
to southern Wyoming and northern Colorado. However, the warmer
temperatures aloft within this corridor may limit storm
coverage/intensity somewhat. Therefore, a few strong to locally
severe storms are possible from southern Montana to northern
Colorado, western Nebraska, and southwest South Dakota, however, a
displacement between the best instability and wind shear should keep
the threat somewhat limited.  

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the Dakotas, in the
vicinity of the cold front, during the day Wednesday. Therefore, a
few thunderstorms are possible along the cold front, but a lack of
better moisture should mostly limit the daytime thunderstorm threat.
However, as the low-level jet strengthens overnight, it will result
in some moistening between 850mb and 700mb which will likely result
in more widespread thunderstorm development after 06Z. During this
period, mid-level flow will also strengthen from around 25 knots to
near 35 knots by 12Z. This will improve the shear across the region
and therefore, result in some threat for large hail and damaging
wind gusts near sunrise as storms develop within a region of
moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear.

..Bentley.. 09/03/2024