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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for isolated strong to severe storms -- capable of producing
gusty/locally damaging winds -- will be possible from parts of
Montana/Wyoming/Colorado into the northern Plains
Wednesday/Wednesday night.  Marginal hail with stronger storms may
also occur across the northern Plains region.

...Synopsis...
The main upper feature of interest with respect to convective/local
severe risk will be a short-wave trough initially situated from the
northern Intermountain region to the Great Basin.  As this feature
advances eastward toward -- and eventually into -- the northern and
central Plains, it is expected to gradually phase with larger-scale
trough digging southeastward into the Canadian Prairie.  This will
result in slow amplification of the upper pattern over Canada and
the adjacent northern half of the U.S. through Thursday morning.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to linger in the
vicinity of the Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico, at the southern
fringe of a drier Continental airmass represented by a large area of
high pressure over the eastern and into the central states. 
Meanwhile, a second cold front -- ahead of the evolving northern
U.S. upper trough -- will shift eastward across the northern Plains
and southward into the central Plains through the period.  By
Thursday morning, the front should extend from Minnesota
southwestward to the Far West Texas vicinity.

...Northern Plains into parts of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado...
Diurnal heating in the wake of the advancing cold front/beneath the
upper trough will result in modest destabilization across portions
of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado during the afternoon -- resulting in
development of isolated thunderstorms.  With a belt of moderate
mid-level west-southwesterlies supporting locally stronger updrafts,
and a deep mixed layer suggesting some evaporative enhancement
potential in the sub-cloud layer, a few instances of strong/severe
outflow winds are expected.

Farther east, destabilization near/ahead of the advancing from
should support isolated storm by late afternoon, and continuing into
the evening hours.  With shear beco*ing sufficient for organized
updrafts, a few stronger storms during the afternoon and evening
should prove capable of producing strong/gusty winds and marginal
hail, before nocturnally weakening.

..Goss.. 09/02/2024