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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday as an upper wave
(currently moving onshore along the northern CA coast) translates
east across the northern Rockies. However, fire weather conditions
are not expected to be as intense or widespread as co*pared to
Monday across on either side of the continental divide. 

...Nevada into Idaho...
Portions of northeast NV and central ID are forecast to remain
within the dry slot of the maturing upper-level low. This will
maintain clear skies/warm conditions across the region, but will
also support broad scale subsidence/drying and windy conditions
across the region. Regional orographic influences - namely the Snake
River Plain in eastern ID as well as the Independence and Ruby
mountains of northeast NV, will augment the dry/windy conditions and
should support several hours of elevated fire weather conditions.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also anticipated across
northern ID, MT, and WY by late afternoon as the low shifts east.
While a few dry thunderstorms are possible based on forecast thermal
profiles, recent ensemble guidance shows a stronger signal for
wetting rainfall co*pared to Monday, limiting confidence in the
dry-lightning threat. 

...Central/Northern Plains...
A lee trough is expected to beco*e established over the next 24
hours, but will see more substantial deepening through Tuesday
afternoon amid increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching upper wave. This will result in not only strengthening
westerly downslope flow across eastern WY, but will also bolster
pressure gradient winds across central NE into SD. Recent ensemble
guidance shows reasonably high confidence in maintaining at least a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions with
15-20 mph winds and RH reductions into the teens and low 20s.
Persistent southerly flow overnight Monday into Tuesday will support
some degree of moisture return into the Plains, which is expected to
limit the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. That
said, guidance typically struggles to accurately capture
boundary-layer mixing/RH reductions in such return flow regimes, and
fire weather conditions may be more widespread across NE/SD than
currently depicted.

..Moore.. 09/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...