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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND WESTERN WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may produce hail and gusty winds over parts of
eastern Idaho, southwest Montana, and western Wyoming on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move east across ID into MT and WY,
weakening during that time. Cooling aloft will still acco*pany this
wave, with 500 mb wind speeds around 30-35 kt. Meanwhile, a larger
upper trough will quickly exit the Northeast, with height rises over
the Great Lakes and upper MS Valley.

At the surface, a prominent high will affect much of the eastern
CONUS, providing relatively stable conditions. A trough will develop
during the afternoon over the northern High Plains,  with the
primary cold front affecting parts of the northern Rockies in
association with the a shortwave trough moving across ID, MT, and
WY.

...ID into MT and WY...
Cool temperatures aloft will support early/ongoing showers and a few
thunderstorms on Tuesday, with increasing coverage as heating occurs
into parts of eastern ID, southwest MT and western WY. As the trough
progresses east, scattered strong to marginally severe storms may
develop as instability increases with heating. Steeper lapse rates
aloft as well as elongated hodographs with effective deep-layer
shear around 40 kt will favor cellular storm mode with hail, perhaps
to severe levels. Veering winds with height and perhaps 100 m2/s2
SRH may support a supercell or two as well.

..Jewell.. 09/01/2024