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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds
remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Appalachians into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe
wind gusts may also occur across parts of the northern Great Lakes.

...20Z Update...
Some minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight
Risks based on observational trends, but no major changes have been
made to the outlook. Scattered damaging winds remain possible
through late afternoon and perhaps into early evening from parts of
WV into western/central PA and western MD/VA. See MCD 2040 regarding
the short-term threat in this area. Also, see the previous
discussion below for more information.

..Dean.. 08/31/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024/

...Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across Ontario/Quebec
and the Great Lakes today while undergoing some amplification. 
Ahead of this feature, a surface front will move eastward over parts
of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, and southeastward over the OH Valley
before eventually stalling. A warm front will lift north through the
period across the mid-Atlantic and northeast states.  Late morning
visible satellite imagery shows substantial low cloud cover over
much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will reduce daytime
heating and delay destabilization, especially east of the Blue Ridge
Mountains. However, with a moist low-level air mass in place, even
modest diurnal heating will result in sufficient destabilization to
support some risk for strong/severe storms.

The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper trough is
expected to remain generally displaced to the north/west of the
surface warm sector. Even so, modestly increasing west-southwesterly
winds with height through mid levels should support around 20-30 kt
of deep-layer shear across parts of the central Appalachians and
upper OH Valley vicinity. This shear will be sufficient for loosely
organized multicell clusters to develop or intensify and
subsequently spread east-southeastward through this afternoon.
Isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with
this convection, although some hail may also occur with the
strongest cells. Storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent
by this evening across the Mid-Atlantic while encountering a less
unstable air mass.  Weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent
into the lower OH Valley and TN Valley will likely limit overall
thunderstorm organization.  However, occasional damaging winds may
still occur with thunderstorms along/south of the front as low-level
lapse rates steepen.

...Northern Great Lakes...
Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will exist over
the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes in association with a
shortwave trough embedded within a broader cyclonic flow.  While
low-level moisture and related instability are both expected to
remain limited, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may
support the development of low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon.
If these thunderstorms can be sustained, then isolated strong to
severe winds may occur given the forecast strength of the low to
mid-level flow in the presence of steepened low-level lapse rates.