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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...Synopsis...
Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today
across portions of southern/eastern Nevada into far southwest Utah.
A modest monsoonal moisture plume has been slowly spreading
northwestward from southern/central AZ into southern NV over the
past 12 hours per GOES water-vapor and PWAT imagery. Increasing
mid-level moisture has also been noted in recent VEF soundings with
PWAT values increasing to 0.85 inches as recently as 00 UTC
Saturday. This moisture, co*bined with cool mid-level temperatures,
will support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon as ascent
associated with a weak mid-level perturbation overspreads the
southern Great Basin. Slow storm motions around 10 knots should
promote very narrow swaths of rainfall, but very dry boundary layer
conditions (similar in nature to the 00 UTC VEF sounding) will
likely be in place by peak heating and should promote limited rain
accumulation away from the primary downdraft cores. While
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly isolated, dry
lightning strikes are likely with any storm that can develop and
will pose a fire weather concern considering ERCs are at or above
the 80th percentile.

Elsewhere, very dry conditions will persist across the remainder of
the Great Basin with afternoon RH values in the single digits to
teens. Surface gradient winds are forecast to generally remain below
15 mph for most locations, which limits confidence in additional
fire weather concerns. The general consensus among recent high-res
guidance is that the strongest winds will likely be associated with
thunderstorm outflows across southern NV/southwest UT and into
central AZ.

..Moore.. 08/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...