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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible this evening from southeast Lower Michigan
southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi Valley...
The latest mosaic water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough
over the western Great Lakes extending southward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front is analyzed from
southeast Lower Michigan southwestward to near St. Louis, Missouri.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the front.
Surface dewpoints near and ahead of the front are in the upper 60s
and lower 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 2500 J/k/g
range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the front have 0-6 km
shear ranging from near 20 knot at St. Louis to around 30 knots at
Detroit. This environment, co*bined with steep low-level lapse rates
near 7 C/km, should be enough for a marginally severe wind gusts for
a couple more hours this evening. Hail could also occur within the
cores of the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 08/31/2024