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Mesoscale Discussion 2037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Areas affected...central Illinois into Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302041Z - 302315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce brief hail or localized
strong gusts over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...c*nditions continue to destabilize ahead of a cold
front draped across MO, IL, and into northern IN. Scattered storms
have been ongoing over much of the St. Louis area, with sporadic
strong cores noted on radar.

Given the increasing convergence along the front, unstable and moist
air mass, and continued heating, additional storms are likely to
develop this afternoon. Shear is weak across the region, well south
of the positive-tilt upper trough to the north. Area VWPs indicate
little shear, but modest westerlies do exist across northern areas
toward northern IN.

Capping is non-existent due to cool 700 mb temperatures, and this
will make it easy for storms to increasing in coverage and likely
overturn the regional air mass through evening. While relatively
disorganized/multicellular, marginal hail may occur in the pulsing
updrafts, with locally strong downdrafts.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 08/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39389089 39798998 40338901 41238723 41758632 41688596
            41388570 40758569 39828671 38918825 38048975 38169073
            38709111 39389089