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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower
Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into
parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia into northeast Georgia.

...Synopsis...
The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will
move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with
the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow
expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front
trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across
parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and
south-central Great Plains. 

...Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO...
Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate
to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest
and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be
generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest
west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable
of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail. 

Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat
more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of
eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow
(generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast
within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or
line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant
damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where
confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm
coverage and somewhat stronger flow. 

...NC/VA into the southern ...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC
and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a
moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused
near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday
convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is
expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm
organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will
support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds.

..Dean.. 08/29/2024