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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday into Friday
night from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest, and over portions of the Northeast.

...Central Plains/Midwest...
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective evolution from
the central Plains into the Midwest Friday into Friday night. The
most likely area of surface-based storm development appears to be
across southwest NE into northwest KS, where strong heating and
moderate destabilization is expected near/east of a weak surface
low. Any development in this area could evolve into a multicell
cluster capable of locally severe gusts and perhaps some hail. Other
late afternoon/early evening development cannot be ruled out farther
east, where one or more outflow boundaries may be left over from
morning convection. Moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear
would support an isolated severe hail/wind threat with any such
development. Finally, one or more elevated clusters may develop late
Friday night, in response to an increasing low-level jet and a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving through the
Dakotas. Should this occur, some threat for isolated severe
hail/wind may persist into the overnight hours into parts of the
Midwest. 

...Dakotas into northwest MN...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the northern Rockies towards the Dakotas by Friday evening. In
conjunction with this system, a surface low is forecast to develop
somewhere over northeast MT/southern SK and move southeastward over
the Dakotas. Guidance varies regarding the extent of destabilization
near/north of a surface boundary that will be draped near the
international border, but there is some potential for vigorous
convection to develop across southeast SK/southwest MB and spread
southeastward into parts of ND/northwest MN during the
afternoon/early evening, potentially posing some threat of hail and
strong wind gusts.  

Late Friday night into Saturday morning, an elevated cluster of
storms may develop across southeast ND/northeast SD and begin moving
east-southeastward, with a threat of isolated hail and
strong/locally severe gusts.  

...Northeast...
Diurnal heating and sufficient low-level moisture will result in
moderate destabilization across parts of the Northeast on Friday.
Midlevel flow is expected to gradually weaken through the day, but
remain sufficient to support 30-40 kt of effective shear, which will
support a conditional threat of organized convection. With generally
weak large-scale ascent and the lack of any notable focusing
mechanisms, coverage and intensity of storm development remain
uncertain, but storms capable of isolated damaging winds will be
possible, primarily during the afternoon into the early evening.

..Dean.. 07/21/2022