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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over
portions of the Upper Midwest, with a threat for tornadoes, damaging
winds, and sporadic large hail, especially across parts of Minnesota
into western Wisconsin. Other severe storms are expected across the
central Plains and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.

...Upper Midwest/Central Plains...
Have upgraded portions of central/eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin to Enhanced Risk for a perceived greater aggregate severe
risk, highlighted by a transition to an increased damaging wind
potential by evening.

An upper-level trough will continue generally east-northeastward
from southern Saskatchewan toward Manitoba and eventually far
northwest Ontario late tonight, with southern-peripheral height
falls and moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft as far south
as the far eastern Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon along the
front from northern Minnesota south-southwestward into southwest
Minnesota and the central Plains including eastern/southern Nebraska
into northwest Kansas. 

The most severe-favorable ingredients are expected across
central/southern Minnesota, where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will
coincide with 30-40 kt effective shear. Some initial supercells can
be expected with large hail. Tornado potential should be maximized
across central Minnesota and possibly far western Wisconsin in
vicinity of a weak surface wave/warm front-related triple point,
where low-level moisture/SRH will be maximized, somewhat analogous
to the South Dakota/North Dakota border vicinity yesterday late
afternoon and early evening. Storms should otherwise steadily grow
upscale by early evening, with storm mergers leading to quasi-linear
segments and possible bows with an increased damaging wind potential
across Iowa, and especially eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic including parts Virginia/Pennsylvania...
Scattered multicell thunderstorms are expected to form this
afternoon, offering isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally
severe hail. This activity will develop in a plume of rich low-level
moisture, with lower-elevation surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to
low 70s F. That, along with diurnal heating offsetting modest
mid-level lapse rates, should support MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 08/29/2024