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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms will be posible from Lakes Huron and
Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of
the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday,
with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject
northeastward across Ontario into the Hudson Bay region.  

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across
the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and southward
across the Plains.  By the end of the period, the front should
extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward across the Ohio
Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas.

...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the
Midwest...
Destabilization is expected ahead of the cold front, with
moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE by afternoon. With minimal CINH,
thunderstorm development is likely from lower MI southwest to IL.
Although the stronger deep-layer shear will lag towards the cool
side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts will
favor loosely-organized storms that should tend to cluster over
time. Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail will be
possible.

..Bunting.. 08/28/2024