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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range global models continue to suggest limited severe
potential Days 4-5 (Saturday and Sunday) largely within the
northeastern quarter of the country, followed by several days of
what appears likely to be minimal severe risk through the remainder
of the period.

Day 4/Saturday, upper-level height falls are progged to shift across
the Great Lakes/Midwest/Northeast, as a strengthening upper trough
advances east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes
region.  A weak cold front will cross the Lower Great
Lakes/Appalachians, with likelihood for showers and thunderstorms
acco*panying this front.  However, with stronger flow aloft limited
to areas from Pennsylvania northward, where instability should
remain limited, overall severe risk appears at this time to remain
too low to warrant inclusion of a risk area associated with this
frontal passage.

Limited severe potential may also exist for a few hours in the
afternoon and early evening over the Upper Mississippi Valley area,
as a stronger/reinforcing cold front surges southeastward out of
Canada across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region
and into central Plains and Upper Midwest overnight.  Though only
modest moisture -- and thus weak afternoon pre-frontal
destabilization -- is expected, low-topped convection is expected
during the afternoon across parts of Upper Michigan/Wisconsin and
perhaps Minnesota.  Strong northwesterly flow aloft would support
fast-moving storms, and possibly a risk for damaging winds locally. 
Again though, this potential appears too limited/uncertain to
include a risk area at this time.

Day 5, the surging cold front is forecast to shift southeastward
into the Northeast/New England, and southward across the Ohio Valley
area.  Similar to Day 4 potential for low-topped storms farther
northwest, convection will likely develop along the front through
the afternoon -- particularly across the New England vicinity. 
However, given the frontal passage the prior day, questions with
respect to available moisture -- and thus destabilization potential
-- exist at this time.  As such, despite the strong front and strong
flow aloft, severe risk again appears limited and uncertain,
precluding introduction of a risk area for now.  

The cold front is expected to have moved offshore of New England and
the Mid-Atlantic region by the start of Day 6, beco*ing
quasistationary in a west-to-east manner across the Southeast and
Mid South, on the southern fringe of a Canadian High settling into
the northeastern quarter of the country.  While convection will
likely occur near and south of this front where moist Gulf air will
remain in place, this region will remain well south of the enhanced
flow aloft.  Therefore, severe risk appears minimal -- and should
remain so through the end of the period.