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Mesoscale Discussion 1994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of central WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261458Z - 261630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may sporadically produce large hail
to near 1.25 inch diameter and strong gusts to 65 mph into early
afternoon across portions of central Wyoming.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms have developed
this morning within strong ascent associated with an upper shortwave
trough now ejecting east/northeast across western WY. The 12z RAOB
from RIW showed very steep midlevel lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft amid increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper
level flow. This vertical wind profile will maintain
elongated/straight hodographs as the system continues to progress
east/northeast into early afternoon. This environment will remain
favorable for marginally severe hail over the next few hours. As
stronger heating occurs with eastward extent, steepening low-level
lapse rates and only modest boundary layer moisture may foster
isolated strong gusts as well. Given limited coverage and overall
marginal nature of the severe risk over the next few hours, a watch
is not expected.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   42800862 43360840 43940779 44260736 44500660 44530627
            44270561 43710536 43010589 42500653 42420735 42450818
            42800862