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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
While upper ridging/weak flow aloft prevails across most of the
southern 2/3 of the country, an active northern stream will persist
Tuesday.  Within this stream, and upper trough will continue moving
eastward across western Canada and the northwest CONUS.  Meanwhile,
a weaker/lower amplitude downstream trough will nonetheless be the
more substantial feature with respect to convective/severe
potential.  This trough, initially over the north-central U.S., is
forecast to shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southern
Ontario through Wednesday morning.

At the surface, low pressure initially near the Upper Mississippi
Valley will acco*pany the eastward advance of the upper system,
moving eastward across the Great Lakes region through the period.

...Great Lakes region...
Thunderstorms -- and acco*panying risk for large hail and damaging
winds -- are expected to be ongoing across parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region at the start of
the period, in advance of the eastward-moving upper disturbance. 
Questions regarding initial location, and speed of advance, of this
convection cast substantial uncertainties with respect to evolution
of the severe threat into Tuesday afternoon and beyond.  Still, as
the upper system and associated surface low track eastward across
the Great Lakes, and a moist boundary layer heats/strongly
destabilizes through the afternoon in areas away from ongoing
convection/clouds, severe threat should persist/shift eastward with
time.  With a belt of moderately strong deep-layer westerlies
shifting across the Great Lakes in tandem with the upper system,
potential for organized, rather fast-moving storms is indicated. 
While capping may limit convective coverage with southward extent,
Wisconsin and Michigan appear likely to be the centroid of the risk.

As storms spread eastward through the evening and into the overnight
hours, the eastern extent of the risk is difficult to delineate at
this time.  At least some risk may reach as far east as the Lake
Ontario/Finger Lakes region of New York and adjacent north-central
Pennsylvania.

..Goss.. 08/25/2024