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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area
on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.  A couple of
strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower
Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark
Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper
MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will
migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area
of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas
into the Upper Midwest. 

At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist
airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern
Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse
rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization.
However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak
MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening
as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the
international border. As a result, convective coverage during the
afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. 

By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress
eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours.
This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm
development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear
for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular
development) and damaging gusts will be possible. 

...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains...

An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on
Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will
overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough
and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region,
but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe
gusts with this activity.

...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity...

Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on
Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest
forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises
during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak
to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be
fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any
stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or
small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast
hodographs.

..Leitman.. 08/24/2024