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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern
Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across
WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive
fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected.
Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent
acco*panying the trough, will develop across portions of the
northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for
lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too
localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at
this time. 

Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the
wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily
reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the
West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong
westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote
dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the
northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the
medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts
uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical
probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should
spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with
similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical
conditions.

..Weinman.. 08/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...