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Mesoscale Discussion 1976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern ID...northwest WY...and
southwest MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231831Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon across parts of central/eastern Idaho,
northwest Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Locally strong gusts of
50-65 mph and hail to near 1 inch diameter may occur with strongest
cells.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the mid 70s to
mid 80s F across the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates/cool
temperatures aloft are aiding in weak destabilization early this
afternoon. As a result scattered convection has already developed
over higher terrain. This activity should gradually
increase/strengthen with time as additional destabilization occurs
through the afternoon within a moderately sheared environment. 

Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, but very steep low-level
lapse rates and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will
support strong outflow winds. Regional VWP data and forecast
soundings show elongated/straight hodographs. Coupled with cool
midlevel temps and favorable vertical shear, this could support
marginally severe hail from stronger/longer-lived updrafts. The
somewhat moisture-starved environment should limit a greater/more
widespread severe risk, and a watch is not currently expected for
the MCD area.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON   46091515 46141312 45981081 45820966 45330912 44920906
            44340897 42950936 42511022 42011118 41961231 42161328
            44581520 45571565 46091515