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Mesoscale Discussion 1973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Utah and Northern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222028Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk of large hail and damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue and
expand in coverage across portions of northern Arizona into Utah
this afternoon/evening. Mid-level west to southwesterly flow around
30-40 kts through the base of a trough across the Pacific Northwest
atop southeasterly flow near the surface is supporting modest shear
around 30-35 kts across northwestern Arizona into central/northern
Utah. Daytime heating has resulted in MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg
across northwestern Arizona. In this region a few more organized
transient supercells have been observed on radar, exhibiting broad
weak rotation at times. Generally weak low-level flow and
southwesterly mean flow led to back building cells along the
terrain. Some instances of strong to severe gusts and severe hail
will be possible given deep layer shear for organization and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates. Overall, this threat is expected to
remain localized and watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Thornton/Hart.. 08/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   36951454 37681438 39071408 40441358 41621307 41891287
            41951198 41891135 41671104 40321121 39671137 38431188
            37011162 36431158 36081156 35621191 35471255 35671333
            36171407 36951454