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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe
gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the
Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of
the central and northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern
Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary
midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and
into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft.
Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into
MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across
much of northern CA and OR.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of
a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward
into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend
from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and
central High Plains.

Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states
will spread north across UT and into MT, which will co*bine with
daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability.
Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a
plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to
northeast CO.

...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY...
A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east
across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT
relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable
farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south.
Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area
beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern
ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in
terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust
potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along
and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this
activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk
may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly
drying will occur from the west.

...Northern and central High Plains...
Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over
the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a
Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is
possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these
areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is
expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However,
both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind
profiles will generally favor disorganized storms.

..Jewell.. 08/22/2024