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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...
Heights within an upper-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will
continue to rise on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through
the western U.S. The ridge is forecast to move into the western
Great Lakes from Monday into Tuesday, as the upper-level trough
moves across the north-central U.S. Ahead of the approaching trough,
thunderstorm development will be possible each day, from the
northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. For the three
days, the greatest chance of severe storms appears to be in the
Dakotas on Sunday and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday.
Strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear, co*bined with
increasing large-scale ascent, should result in a severe threat each
afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts will likely be
the primary threats.  

...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...
On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to
move across the upper Mississippi Valley and into southern Canada,
as a second trough moves through the northern Plains. At the
surface, a moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the
Great Lakes region and Upper Midwest. Scattered to widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across much of this moist airmass on
both days. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible each
afternoon and evening, the threat is expected to remain marginal due
to a large area of mid-level high pressure that is forecast to be in
place over much of the eastern half of the nation.