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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN
NEVADA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts
will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and
evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from
the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona
into parts of Utah.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later
today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of
the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel
shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move
east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front
moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude
shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying
mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central
Rockies/High Plains. 

...Central High Plains...
Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of
the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low
over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient
low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late
afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based
convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late
afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly
favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather
modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft
will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat
organized convection. 

Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms
and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon
into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially
with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis
from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities
may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence
increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. 

...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota...
Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move
across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate
MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning
storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate
destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold
front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the
primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection
expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of
storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively
limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some
storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could acco*pany
any stronger redevelopment. 

...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah...
A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may
evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where
increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough
will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However,
guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and
destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm
development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized
cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe
gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. 

...South-central Texas...
High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central
TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the
vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and
deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any
storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may
support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early
evening.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024