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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging
wind gusts appear possible over parts of the Northeast and Southeast
on Thursday.

...Northeast...

Short-wave trough will eject across the lower Great Lakes/upper OH
Valley into western QC, glancing New England as it ejects into the
Maritimes late in the period. Latest model guidance remains
consistent in allowing strong boundary-layer heating across NY into
northern ME by 18z ahead of the surface front. This corridor of
strong heating will result in modest destabilization with upwards of
2000 J/kg SBCAPE prior to convective initiation. Forecast flow/shear
support isolated supercells, and more co*plex organized clusters and
line segments capable of generating damaging winds and perhaps some
hail. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be
breached by 17-18z, and scattered thunderstorms should evolve ahead
of the front shortly thereafter. With strongest forcing expected to
spread north of the international border, trailing convection should
beco*e more isolated across southern New England. Thunderstorms
should spread east of the region and/or weaken after sunset over
Downeast ME.

...Southeast...

Early this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms was slowly organizing
over southern KY along the southwestern flank of the Great Lakes/OH
Valley short-wave trough. Northwest flow is expected to increase
into the southern Appalachians by mid day as the short wave
progresses east of the higher terrain. Remnants of this
early-morning co*plex should progress across eastern TN toward
northern GA. Additional convection will likely evolve/redevelop
along surging outflow, and later in the day along the primary
synoptic front that will sag across the TN Valley into the mid South
region. Strong buoyancy and adequate flow aloft should provide
enough storm-layer shear for some storm clustering. In addition to
some wet microburst potential, organized clusters could also
generate gusty winds.

...High Plains of SD/NE...

Strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to hot surface
temperatures that will mitigate capping across portions of SD/NE by
late afternoon. Weak surface boundary is expected to drape across
the NE Panhandle into south-central SD, and this may provide the
focus for a few high-based storms. If storms can initiate, the LLJ
is forecast to increase across NE after sunset. This may support a
few longer-lived updrafts into the evening hours.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 07/21/2022