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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts
remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern
Montana and the western Dakotas.

...Montana into the western Dakotas...
A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving
across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance
of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are
ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate
to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable
effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to
support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the
shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is
expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some
severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of
eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some
potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat.
See MCD 1970 for more information. 

...Central High Plains...
Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into
extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO.
Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will
remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the
central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale
growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and
western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level
jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may
spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH
results in a weakening trend overnight.  

...Southeast AZ...
Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ
have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A
general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy
diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger
storms may persist through early evening.

..Dean.. 08/22/2024