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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday from parts
of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, and over portions of
the Northeast.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of IA and
vicinity in a modest low-level warm-advection regime. This mainly
elevated convection should diminish through the morning hours as a
southwesterly low-level jet weakens. Rich low-level moisture should
exist along/south of a weak front that should extend across parts of
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. As daytime heating of
this moist airmass occurs, moderate instability should develop
across these areas. Primary uncertainty regarding the overall severe
threat remains nebulous large-scale forcing. This region will
generally be located between an upper anticyclone over the Southwest
and an elongated upper cyclone centered over central/eastern Canada.
Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level winds should be present,
and related deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized
updrafts. However, given the lack of any notable shortwave trough
and some capping which should persist through much of the afternoon,
it remains unclear if/where thunderstorms will form through Friday
evening.

Even with these uncertainties, some guidance suggests isolated
convection may develop by late Friday afternoon along/south of the
weak boundary. Surface temperatures should get rather hot by peak
afternoon heating across the central Plains, which may be enough to
erode lingering convective inhibition. Any thunderstorms that can
form across this region may pose an isolated threat for both large
hail and severe wind gusts. Across the Upper Midwest, convective
initiation may occur later Friday evening/night in association with
a modestly strengthening west-southwesterly low-level jet. Even with
this potentially later start, this mainly elevated convection should
still pose an isolated threat for large hail given the strong MUCAPE
forecast. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also reach the surface
with the more robust downdrafts that can breach a near-surface
stable layer. 

...Northeast...
Mid-level heights should slowly rise across most of the Mid-Atlantic
into the Northeast on Friday. Even with generally subsident flow
aloft, there is a signal in most guidance that at least isolated
convection will develop ahead of a secondary cold front as a weak
mid-level perturbation traverses over these regions. Although
forecast instability is weak, enough deep-layer shear should exist
for an isolated threat of damaging winds with any thunderstorms that
can form. Have adjusted the Marginal Risk for where the best
convective signal exists.

..Gleason.. 07/21/2022