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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this
weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the
central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a
dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest,
supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk
for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal
flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather
concerns, though forecast confidence is low.

...Great Basin and Rockies...
Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low
will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID
and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend.
Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the
potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The
highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts
remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT.  Several
preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels
to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather
concerns are probable.

Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over
parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to
near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and
eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists
D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated
fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front
Range.

...Southern Plains...
Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains
late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO.
Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support
occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX
and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some
potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a
stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence
remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant
fire-weather potential for now.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms
will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and
northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry
low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support
somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where
fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern
Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances
should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this
weekend and beyond.

..Lyons.. 08/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...