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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over
parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track for the northern and central
High Plains based on recent observed trends and latest forecast
guidance. The Marginal risk area across south-central AZ has been
modified to remove areas that have seen little diurnal
destabilization owing to persistent stratiform rain and/or cirrus
emanating from a broken line of weak convection. Additionally, wind
risk probabilities have been expanded slightly east to account for
recent thunderstorm development within a similarly buoyant and
deeply-mixed environment as the remainder of the risk area. See the
previous discussion for additional details.

..Moore.. 08/21/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/

...Northern High Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over ID/NV tracking northeastward.  Lift associated with this system
will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and
evening.  This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over
the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the
Plains during the evening.  Instability in the mountains is quite
weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level
lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk
of gusty winds.  Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a
more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND
where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging
winds and large hail.

...c*/NE/KS...
Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon
thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. 
This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft,
and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen
low-level lapse rates.  This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging
winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into
the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells
continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening.

...Southeast AZ...
Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ,
with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds.  Today will be
similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over
the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late
afternoon and early evening.