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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over
parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.

...Northern High Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over ID/NV tracking northeastward.  Lift associated with this system
will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and
evening.  This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over
the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the
Plains during the evening.  Instability in the mountains is quite
weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level
lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk
of gusty winds.  Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a
more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND
where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging
winds and large hail.

...c*/NE/KS...
Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon
thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. 
This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft,
and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen
low-level lapse rates.  This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging
winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into
the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells
continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening.

...Southeast AZ...
Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ,
with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds.  Today will be
similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over
the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late
afternoon and early evening.

..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024