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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible
Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with
minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into
the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West
as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with
increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving
upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. 

At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into
the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS
River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any
appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area.

...Eastern CO into NE...
A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will
aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon.
Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with
southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will
likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward
across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the
primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high
level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across
central NE and western KS.

...Eastern Dakotas into MN...
Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the
area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds.
Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing
system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail
may occur as the activity continues east into MN.

Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from
central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may
be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are
probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe
of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and
deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail.

..Jewell.. 08/21/2024