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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

...17z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near
critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern
Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible
over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least
some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible
over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the
coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited.
See the prior discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 08/21/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great
Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a
southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast.
This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions
across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for
isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. 

...Dry/Windy...
Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will
result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The
best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive
fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where
fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile.
Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological
conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent
wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower
corridor supporting wildfire spread. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern
Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile
range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry
boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT
values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the
strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather
conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new
ignitions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...