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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern Plains,
and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level ridge will remain over eastern parts of the central
and northern Plains on Friday. A north-to-south axis of moisture and
instability is forecast across Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and
eastern Montana, where isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings near
the area of strongest instability late Friday afternoon in northern
Kansas and southwest Nebraska suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 2000
to 3000 J/kg range and 0-6 km shear will be from 30 to 40 knots.
This, co*bined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should
support an isolated severe threat. However, large-scale ascent is
forecast to be absent across much of the region. For this reason,
updrafts may struggle to intensify due to subsidence in the wake of
the ridge, keeping any severe threat marginal.

...Eastern Utah/Western Colorado/Far Southwest Wyoming...
An upper-level low is forecast to approach the coast of Oregon on
Friday as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the
Intermountain West. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through
the western U.S., which will likely aid the development of scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon from eastern Utah eastward into the
central Rockies. The models suggest that weak instability, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in
place, which would be sufficient for marginal severe threat. Hail
and isolated severe gusts will be possible mainly during the mid to
late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 08/21/2024