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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts 
are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern
Montana and western North Dakota.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge
extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper
trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in
gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. 
To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into
northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south
across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great
Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS
and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume
of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of
a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High
Plains. 

As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move
across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe
storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact
with the instability plume.

...Northern Rockies/Plains...
Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest
MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds
will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be
possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will
encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. 

By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is
possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS
developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail
would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F
dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. 

Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected
from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the
upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and
instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with
storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2024