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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be
possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central
and northern Plains on Thursday. To the west of the ridge, an axis
of instability is forecast to be in place from western Kansas
northward into east-central North Dakota. Near this axis, surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to the
development of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition to the
instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot
range along much of this corridor, which should be sufficient for an
isolated severe threat. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
any cell that can initiate near the instability axis could have
potential for hail and severe gusts. There is some uncertainty
concerning Thursday's forecast. First, the models vary considerably
on the distribution and magnitude of instability. Second, the models
differ significantly on convective coverage. The current thinking is
that storm coverage will remain relatively isolated due to
subsidence in the wake of the ridge, and that convection may tend to
develop further to the east away from the instability axis. For this
reason, a marginal risk should be sufficient for this forecast.

..Broyles.. 08/20/2024