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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large
hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards.

...01z Update...

Notable mid-level short-wave trough is topping the northern High
Plains ridge over eastern MT early this evening. A secondary, less
amplified disturbance is ejecting across the Bitter Roots of ID into
extreme western MT. Each of these features appears partly
responsible for scattered robust convection immediately downstream.
Latest diagnostic data suggests an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
extends across the central High Plains from eastern CO-NE
Panhandle-eastern MT. This axis of buoyancy will be the primary
corridor for strong/severe thunderstorms this evening. Both GGW and
UNR exhibited modest instability, with ample 0-6km shear, for
slow-moving supercells; though, both had CINH and capping at the top
of the boundary layer around 1km AGL. Primary concentration of
longer-lived clusters will likely shift into the western Dakotas as
this is where the LLJ should strengthen after sunset. Hail/wind
remain the primary risks.

..Darrow.. 08/20/2024