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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS
through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western
flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of
the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by
several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic
dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great
Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south
along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential,
along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin.


...Great Basin...
As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a
belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the
western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough
the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow
in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low
humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH
below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical
fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger
sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more
organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow
aloft.

Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue
to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with
showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry
lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though
moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low.
 Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and
breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in
moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather
potential toward the end of the extended forecast period.

...Northwest...
With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the
next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is
expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin
through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could
support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA
through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs
expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will
also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and
ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in
more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the
upper low approaches.

..Lyons.. 08/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...