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Mesoscale Discussion 1943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...southeast New York...New Jersey...eastern
Pennsylvania...Maryland...and northern Virginia.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 181709Z - 181845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon
and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued by
mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop across the
Appalachians from central Pennsylvania into southern New York as
cold-air advection aloft overspread the region. Farther east, some
inhibition remains across eastern Pennsylvania amid broken
cloudcover. However, this stratus deck has started to erode and
should allow for significant surface heating over the next 1 to 2
hours. Under the influence of weak height falls and cyclonic flow
aloft, expect scattered thunderstorm development within the uncapped
environment from eastern Pennsylvania to eastern Virginia. 20 to 25
knots of effective shear (per RAP forecast soundings) will support
some multicell organization with a primary threat from downbursts.
An additional round of storms is possible this afternoon/evening as
storms which develop over the mountains move into the lower
elevations with some congealing into one or more linear segments
possible.

..Bentley/Hart.. 08/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40547769 41317749 42137628 42417538 42127417 41867392
            40997382 40427389 39877399 39617411 39367423 39217462
            38947475 38707496 38437505 38177509 37837529 37577548
            37227571 37127605 37247675 37577737 38117797 38647843
            39487847 40547769