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Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Areas affected...northeastern Ohio and far northwestern PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...

Valid 202356Z - 210130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms including a few supercells should continue
eastward with a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2345 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a band of
severe storms ongoing across northeast OH and the CLE metro
vicinity. A few of these storms have shown transient supercell
traits consistent with the expected storm mode from the 30-40 kt of
vertical shear as sampled by the 20z ILN sounding and the CLE
VAD/VWP. Storm organization and subsequent potential for damaging
wind gusts should continue this evening into portions of
northeastern OH where a warm and buoyant airmass (2000-3000 J/kg of
MCLAPE) remains in place. Some upscale growth of the ongoing
clusters is possible, though uncertain, as high-res model guidance
appears overdone with storm coverage. Should additional storms
develop, the primary risk corridor will likely remain far
northeastern OH and northwestern PA where low-level convergence and
buoyancy will be maximized along the lake shore. Storms should
gradually begin to weaken after sunset, as nocturnal stabilization
begins to set in. until then, isolated damaging wind gusts will
remain possible with the better organized supercellular/clusters as
they move eastward.

..Lyons.. 07/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40538341 42058162 42108001 40458146 40538341